In a math class, a professor asked this question – Imagine you in the middle of an ocean and have a boat, you travel 500 km north, turn 90 degrees, go 500 km, then turn 90 degrees, go another 500 km, again turn 90 degrees, go another 500 km, where will you be. Immediately so many hands went up to answer the question that is too easy, but the professor identified a pupil thinking deeply but who did not raise hands. When asked why was the pupil not raising hands, the answer was – “I don’t know how to calculate”. The entire class left out a loud laughter, the professor waited patiently for the laughter to die down and asked the pupil to explain the thoughts on the board. The pupil explained that earth is curved so travelling huge distances and turning 90 degrees four times will not take you back to the same location but some kilometres short, but is not aware of how to calculate the exact distance away from the starting point. The professor explained to the class that the pupil is in right direction, this is non Euclidean geometry, how overconfidence blinds people into stagnating at a level.

The workplace is no different, but there are no professors to validate confidence vs competence. I was misled a few times and made mistakes in staffing, until I found a way to interview people and identify the indicators for competence. Dunning-Kruger effect explains that most of us will always pitch on better-than-average rating if we are asked to evaluate ourselves. The false confidence that it imparts to below average people and the hesitation it imparts on above average people will be presented and read as an indicator for competence.
Some indicators that helped identify competence and weed out false confidence
- Humility – This is one of the biggest indicators for me, people who are humbled by experiences have learnt a lot.
- Grit, Discipline, System – People who have a systems way of working, hanging out on to habits/practices/processes that are simple, yet effective and have a long term impact.
- Team player – Very difficult to find out in first meetings, some points include openness to share knowledge, ability to receive feedback, challenge ideas but not the person etc.
Falsely confident people will walk in circles when lost, but will give the illusion of progress and that comfort feel of not stuck in a place. Competent people may need the – observe, orient, decide and act loop to work before they can act but will sure help progress.
